The wholesale price-based inflation spiked to 12.54 per cent in October, mainly due to rise in prices of manufactured products and crude petroleum. WPI inflation has remained in double digit for the seventh consecutive month beginning April. Inflation in September this year was at 10.66 per cent, while in October 2020 it was at 1.31 per cent.
Higher inflation has again become a matter of concern for fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) companies. After prices of commodities like sugar and wheat moved higher and stabilised at those levels, the crude oil too surged, adding to FMCG firms' worries. Besides, a dry spell in August in the ongoing monsoon season impacted rural demand.
Marico may buck the industry trend with the fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) major reporting strong growth and favourable commentary in a weak quarter for the industry. The company reported consolidated revenue growth of 8 per cent year-on-year (Y-o-Y) in Q2FY25. Domestic revenue growth was 8 per cent Y-o-Y with 5 per cent volume growth (4 per cent in Q1FY25).
Global rating agency Moody's on Monday said the high commodity prices and supply chain disruptions due to further escalation in the Russia-Ukraine crisis could expose about 42 per cent of rated Indian companies to significant risks. They are mainly in the oil and gas and automotive sectors. The impact may be seen under two scenarios: first, revised base line and second being downside economic scenarios incorporating a global recession and a more severe liquidity squeeze, it said. The military conflict between Russia and Ukraine is impacting companies in Asia Pacific, adding to existing challenges from supply chain disruption and the coronavirus pandemic.
M&M president for automotive sector Pawan Goenka told reporters that there has been a surge in commodity prices, specially that of rubber and sheet metals, which has resulted in pressures on margins.
India's merchandise exports dipped by about one per cent to $38.01 billion in December 2024 against $38.39 billion a year ago, according to government data released on Wednesday. Imports increased by 4.8 per cent to $59.95 billion in December 2024 compared to $57.15 billion in the year-ago month.
India's overall retail inflation eased to 4.41 per cent in September, helped by falling commodity prices, but rural inflation was at 5.05 per cent
Indian economy is projected to grow 7.1-7.6 per cent in the current financial year despite shifting geopolitical realities across the world, a report said on Wednesday. In its India's economic outlook - July 2022 report, leading consultancy Deloitte India said that as 2021 was coming to a close, there was optimism in the air but the optimism received a jolt early this year as a wave of Omicron infections swept through the country and Russia's invasion of Ukraine happened in February. "These events aggravated the pre-existing challenges such as surging inflation, supply shortages, and shifting geopolitical realities across the world with no definite end in sight.
On March 13, the Union consumer affairs ministry had declared face masks and hand sanitisers as essential commodities for 100 days to boost supply and prevent hoarding of these items in its fight to check the spread of coronavirus.
The government on Tuesday announced a Rs 200 per cylinder cut in prices of domestic cooking gas as it looked to counter the cheaper LPG promise of the Congress in upcoming assembly elections in states like Madhya Pradesh.
Karvy group's commodity broking arm, too, is facing a liquidity crisis because of some issues related to NCDEX, said people in the know.
The economic growth may have slowed to 3.5 per cent in fourth quarter of 2021-22 from 5.4 per cent in the previous three-month period due to the impact of higher commodity prices on margins, decline in wheat yields and on higher base, Icra Ratings said on Monday. The agency said the hiccups in the recovery of the contact-intensive services attributable to the third wave of Covid-19 in the country may have also affected the economic growth in the quarter. Even the gross value added (GVA) at basic prices (at constant 2011-12 prices) in Q4 FY2022 seems to have eased to 2.7 per cent from 4.7 per cent in Q3 FY2022, it said.
As India looks to mend its Covid-battered economy, one thing that will grab the attention of all concerned is the path that both wholesale and retail inflation will follow. Even the Reserve Bank of India in its latest policy statement said, "Going forward, the inflation trajectory is likely to be shaped by uncertainties impinging on the upside and the downside.
The Reserve Bank on Wednesday projected retail inflation to ease to 5.3 per cent in next fiscal from 6.5 per cent this year on assumptions of lower imported inflation, even though core inflation remains sticky. The RBI's inflation outlook for current fiscal has improved from 6.8 per cent projected earlier, to 6.5 per cent, on the back of steeper than expected decline in vegetable prices and Indian basket of crude at $95 a barrel. "Looking ahead, while inflation is expected to moderate in 2023-24, it is likely to rule above the 4 per cent target.
The central government is on track to meet its fiscal deficit target of 6.4 per cent of the GDP for 2022-23 on the back of strong growth in revenue collections, the World Bank said in its India Development Update on Tuesday. High nominal GDP growth in the first quarter supported strong growth in revenue collection, especially Goods and Services Tax (GST), despite tax cuts on fuel. Notwithstanding an increase in spending due to expanded fertilizer subsidies and food subsidies for vulnerable households in response to the commodity price shock, the government is on track to meet its FY22/23 fiscal deficit target of 6.4 per cent of GDP and the general government deficit is projected to decline to 9.6 per cent from 10.3 per cent in FY21/22 and 13.3 per cent in FY20/21.
Investors' wealth on Monday surged Rs 4.21 lakh crore as markets bounced back after five days of fall. The BSE Sensex jumped 602.75 points or 0.76 per cent to settle at 80,005.04. During the day, it surged 1,137.52 points or 1.43 per cent to 80,539.81.
India's exports are becoming less vulnerable to changes in world demand and exchange rates, according to a publication titled 'Re-examining Narratives: A Collection of Essays', penned by chief economic advisor (CEA) V Anantha Nageswaran and his team. The publication pointed out that this conclusion has been drawn from the fact that there has been a decrease in the income elasticity of exports to 3.44 during 2009-2022, from 5.67 during 1991-2008, and in the inverse price elasticity of exports to 0.4 from 2.7. While a decline in elasticities is favourable in the presence of downside risks such as a decline in global demand and an appreciation of exchange rates, it may not be beneficial during boom periods.
Despite admitting to price pressures both from food items and input prices, RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das on Wednesday hoped that a normal Southwest monsoon will have a "soothing impact" on inflation pressures and ruled out any wide variations in medium-term inflation forecast from what was given in April. In an unscheduled address earlier in the day amidst the raging pandemic, Das said the overall outlook for the economy is highly uncertain and is clouded with downside risks. He offered a slew of relief and liquidity measures to individuals and small businesses apart from a Rs 50,000 crore special liquidity window to the healthcare sector.
Retail inflation rose to three-month high of 4.81 per cent in June, mainly on account of hardening prices of food, according to the government data. Inflation based on the Consumer Price Index (CPI) stood at 4.31 per per (revised upward from 4.25 per cent) in May and 7 per cent in June 2022. The inflation, however, remains within the RBI's comfort level of below 6 per cent.
'We crossed Rs 1.7 trillion in three months this financial year.'
Tata Motors, Ford, Nissan, Maruti Suzuki, Toyota Kirloskar, BMW, Renault and Isuzu have also announced price hike from next month citing impact of increase in commodity prices and foreign exchange rates.
The bull run in the Indian equity markets is intact, said analysts at Morgan Stanley in a recent note. They expect the S&P BSE Sensex to hit 80,000 levels by December 2023 in their bull-case scenario, to which they have assigned a 30 per cent probability. From the current level, this translates into an upside of nearly 29 per cent.
After a steady surge, prices of pulses, except those of urad and masoor to some extent, are showing signs of stabilising amid a revival of monsoon rains over major growing areas of Maharashtra and Karnataka, and on expectations of a rise in imports. Chana prices, which too had moved up in recent months, have dropped by almost 3 per cent since the end of August due to increased liquidation of government stocks, official data shows. Monsoon rains seem to have benefitted the standing soybean crop as well.
The Bharatiya Janata Party on Sunday promised to enact an-anti conversion law with stringent provisions in Maharashtra, and also assured a skill census for training as per industry needs as well as free ration to low-income families.
The stock of Crompton Greaves Consumer Electricals has shed about 12 per cent since the start of the month due to a muted near-term outlook. Demand slowdown across segments and pre-buying in cooling products in the June quarter are expected to weigh on revenues going ahead. In addition to pre-buying in the preceding quarter, demand conditions are soft on account of lower consumer spending due to inflationary conditions, weakness in rural demand and the fact that Q2 remains a soft quarter after a strong summer.
'Investors should consider small and midcaps only if they can handle volatility and have a longer investment horizon.'
'We remain positive on technology, private sector financials, gas, infrastructure, and export-oriented plays.'
Union Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman on Monday said people are finding current interest rates "very stressful" and urged banks to make them affordable. Speaking at an event organised by State Bank of India, the finance minister said that at present, India requires industry to ramp up and invest in new facilities, and added that lowering lending rates can help achieve the "Viksit Bharat" aspiration.
FPIs have turned net sellers in 2022 after being net buyers in the last three years.
Tata Motors' 2022-23 (FY23) January-March quarter (fourth quarter, or Q4) results were better than Street estimates, with strong showing across Jaguar Land Rover (JLR), as well as commercial and passenger vehicle businesses in the domestic market. The company posted its highest consolidated top line and operating profit, with growth of 35 per cent and 46.5 per cent, respectively, over the year-ago quarter. While the top line was aided by a 49 per cent growth in the JLR unit, all key segments reported margin expansion.
Corporate India's net profit as a percentage of gross domestic product (GDP) dipped in the 2022-23 financial year (FY23) -- after rebounding sharply in FY22 -- amid a decline in global commodity prices. Top 500 companies' combined net profit stood at 4.1 per cent of the GDP for FY23, down from 4.3 per cent in the previous financial year when it had gone up from just 3.5 per cent in FY21. "The year-on-year (YoY) decline was led by global commodities, which contributed adversely to the ratio, while the financial sector contributed positively.
The Reserve Bank on Wednesday hiked key benchmark policy rate by 25 basis points to 6.5 per cent, citing sticky core inflation.
Due to the continued pressure of high costs, Toyota is considering a price increase of up to 3 per cent across models with effect from January.
Most investors should have a 5% to 10% allocation to gold for diversification. They should stagger their investments to mitigate timing risk.
Futures trading in commodity markets is a booming business these days in India. But not many people know the technical terms used in commodity futures trade. Check out the technical jargons of commodity futures explained in simple language.
'What will matter in 2024 from the market standpoint is the direction of interest rates globally, as well as in India.' 'The results of the general elections will also be keenly watched.'
The sweeping economic sanctions on Russia - the second largest producer of crude oil - following its invasion of Ukraine late last month can cull global and domestic growth along with the added pains of higher inflation and currency depreciation, RBI Deputy Governor Michael Patra has said. And if the war lingers on, it can even lead to deglobalisation and even a recession, he added. The ongoing war has only added a whole new dimension to the outlook, and in fact, a weighty downside, Patra said in a lecture at the industry lobby IMC on Friday evening.
'A 10 to 15 per cent allocation to gold in portfolios reduces risk without compromising on potential returns.'
The Gross Value Added (GVA) in agriculture and allied activities is projected to clock its best growth in FY23 during the October-to-December quarter, at 3.7 per cent, on the back of a strong kharif harvest, according to the second advance estimates of national income. In the third quarter of FY22, GVA in the sector was 2.3 per cent at constant prices. At current prices, the growth in the third quarter of this financial year is projected at 8.6 per cent, which is almost at the same level in the corresponding quarter of FY22.
